Prediction of Tommaso Compagnucci vs Alec Deckers at M25 Vale do Lobo 11-20-25

• Second Serve Performance: Recently, Alec Deckers has shown an edge over Tommaso Compagnucci, winning 47.39% of points on his second serve compared to 41.02% for Compagnucci. Could this be an influential factor in their match outcome?
• Return Game Analysis: Compagnucci has a slight advantage in returning second serves, winning 45.53% of points, while Deckers secures 44.42% in this category. However, Compagnucci clearly outperforms on first serve returns at 32.30% compared to Deckers' 23.18%.
• Under Pressure: Deckers is slightly better at saving breakpoints, with 57.42% against Compagnucci's 52.44%. Will this help Deckers in crucial moments?
• Performance Outlook: In the past year, Deckers has won a higher percentage of his matches at 73.53% (25/9), overshadowing Compagnucci's 62.50% (40/24).
• Surface Proficiency: Compagnucci prefers clay courts with a 60% win rate, while Deckers performs best on indoor hard courts, also winning 60%. How might surface play into this match?
• Player Experience Level: Both players have been successful in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments, with Deckers slightly ahead at 73.53% compared to Compagnucci’s 69.39% win rate.
• Opponent Ranking: Over the past year, Compagnucci has faced marginally higher-ranked opponents (average rank of 359.3) versus Deckers' average opponent rank of 367.47.
• Deciding Set Performance: Deckers shines in deciding sets, capturing 75% of such matches over the last year, compared to Compagnucci's 63% win rate.
• Break Point Conversion: Compagnucci has been more effective lately in converting breakpoints, achieving a 43.81% success rate as opposed to Deckers’ 33.59%.

Editorial Prediction (November 20, 2025, UTC):

As we anticipate the upcoming tennis showdown, Alec Deckers' superior second serve performance and breakpoint-saving ability position him as a formidable opponent. His recent commanding win rate of 73.53% further underscores his current form.

Yet, Tommaso Compagnucci's strength in returning first serves and high breakpoint conversion rate could serve as game-changers, should he maintain these advantages during their encounter.

Playing on their preferred surfaces or conditions might tilt the scales, with Compagnucci excelling on clay and Deckers on indoor hard courts. The match conditions, as well as day-form, will highly influence the result.

Overall, while both players are competitive, Deckers appears slightly favored to claim victory, owing to recent form and clutch performance under pressure.